View on GitHub

joeisdone.github.io

Joe Is Done

In-depth pages: Independents, Demographics, A Political Testimony

25-Sept update: I’ve been asked for an update - and the update is: the numbers here haven’t changed meaningfully. I’m working on an interactive election predictor page. Stay tuned.

Now in comic format

This page now in easier-to-understand comic format here!

Joe’s Yuge Strategic Misstep

Several states have begun releasing reports on voters who have requested vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots. North Carolina, in particular, has begun publishing a daily report here.

Lockdowns have driven a surge in demand for mail-in voting. North Carolina’s mail-in requests currently stand at over fourteen times the demand at the same time in 2016.

In 2016, Republicans had the advantage, requesting forty percent of all VBM ballots to the Democrats’ thirty-one percent. In 2020, Democrats hold a commanding advantage: having fifty-one percent of all VBMs to the Republicans’ 16 percent. The charts below show the difference:

VBM breakdown 2016 vs 2020

2016 vs. 2020 VBM makeup. Don’t panic. This is actually bad news for Joe.

Should Republicans toss in the towel then?

No! Actually, Joe Biden needs to throw in the towel.

I will explain why.

The MSM has convinced Democrats voting in person is dangerous

It is well known that the MSM has made a massive push to get Americans to vote by mail. Thus far, this push has been effective on Democrats, but not so much Republican. Nate Silver says:

According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)

The percent of Democrats intending to vote by mail rises to 57% in battleground states, which have remained locked down for the most part. Source

Polls show that Democrats strongly believe that voting is a health risk.

63% of Democrats believe voting is a health risk

Sixty-three percent of Democrats believe voting is dangerous Source

Given these priors, it seems exceedingly unlikely that Democrats are inclined to go out and vote during Election Day. Joe Biden must get the majority of Democrats to vote by mail!

So what voting methods will voters take? Here’s what a poll says:

VBM breakdown 2016 vs 2020

The surveys are consistent:

Applying this turnout model to NC VBM statistics

What does that mean for North Carolina ballots? Well, we can take the numbers from 2016 and extrapolate them to figure out target turnouts for Joe Biden based on stated voter preferences.

First, we find out how many people in each registered party voted in 2016 Source:

2016 turnouts

In 2016, 1,872,593 Democrats voted in the election, compared to 1,571,730 Republicans and 1,305,330 Independents. Assuming the respective parties voted for their respective candidate at 100%, independents broke strongly for the Republicans.

We can use these numbers to establish target baselines for each party to reach 2016 turnout levels using stated voting by mail preferences.

  2016 NC turnout VBM % (estimate) 2020 NC VBM target to match 2016
Democrats 1,872,593 50% 936,296
Republicans 1,571,730 18% 282,911
Independents 1,305,330 33% 430,758

How are the parties tracking?

Using the published reports, we can detect the linear trends and make a projection as to how the parties are currently tracking.

VBM projections

We capture the projections to October 27th, the last day a ballot can be requested, and find the following.

  2020 NC VBM target to match 2016 Currently on track for… Gap
Democrats 936,296 761,992 -174,304 (Severely underperform)
Republicans 282,911 288,630 +5,719 (Slightly Outperform)
Independents 430,758 513,106 +82,348 (Well Outperform)

In short:

Joe Biden is well under where he needs to achieve a VBM majority.

Wait, there’s more.

The above models were using optimistic assumptions - that only 50% of Democrats intend to vote by mail (polls indicate closer to 55%), whereas 18% of Republicans intend to VBM (recent polling shows this number can be as low as 11%).

When these other factors are considered, Joe Biden is done… maybe even 1984 done… but if and only if Republicans can deliver on their Election Day and early voting GOTV efforts.

The media will be trumpeting the mail-in voting numbers as if they are portending a doomsday scenario for Trump. You can smile and know they are in for a nasty surprise on Election Night.

Recommendations for the Trump team