No, Trump isn’t losing NC.
First time visitor? Read the comic intro first!
Brief update on the ‘Trump has conceded NC’ panic: It’s Fake News.
“The President is going to win North Carolina and we feel very solid about it,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told ABC News, pointing to its grassroots effort on the ground in the state and polling that shows 42% of Democrats in the state prefer voting by mail and “if this is true, and current absentee ballot request trends continue, they are facing a historically low turnout.”
I agree with the campaign manager. As of now my model predicts 35.9% Dem turnout relative to 2016, but that is based on a 7-day rolling average which has been dropping on a daily basis. IMO, 30% is a realistic goal at this point when all VBM is turned in.
The NC VBM is unusually slanted towards Dems relative to other states. But that is because older Reps in NC tend to be registered as Democrats. Here’s the proof:
- In 2016, 44% of all age 65+ voters were registered Democrats.
- In 2016, only 37% of NC voters age 65+ voted Hillary. 60% voted Trump. Link
- Even if you assign every I and R 65+ voter to Trump, that still leaves a significant (16%) crossover D vote to Trump among the 65+ cohort. It’s probably closer to 25%.
- The VBM and early votes are disproportionately older.
- Ergo, the VBM and early vote Trump supporters will be disproportionately registered Democrat.
A better way is to measure turnout by county and see if the red areas are doing well. Eyeball here.
Case in point: Henderson County. Went for Trump 2:1 in 2016. Big “crossover Dem” county.
As of writing NC has turned out 30% of their 2016 turnout.
But Henderson County has 21,637 early votes (IPEV + VBM) - which is 37.2% of their 2016 total turnout of 58,174 votes.
QED.